Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
