A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
